Article Dans Une Revue PLoS Neglected Tropical Diseases Année : 2012

Can Human Movements Explain Heterogeneous Propagation of Dengue Fever in Cambodia?

Résumé

Background: Determining the factors underlying the long-range spatial spread of infectious diseases is a key issueregarding their control. Dengue is the most important arboviral disease worldwide and a major public health problem intropical areas. However the determinants shaping its dynamics at a national scale remain poorly understood. Here wedescribe the spatial-temporal pattern of propagation of annual epidemics in Cambodia and discuss the role that humanmovements play in the observed pattern.Methods and Findings: We used wavelet phase analysis to analyse time-series data of 105,598 hospitalized cases reportedbetween 2002 and 2008 in the 135 (/180) most populous districts in Cambodia. We reveal spatial heterogeneity in thepropagation of the annual epidemic. Each year, epidemics are highly synchronous over a large geographic area along thebusiest national road of the country whereas travelling waves emanate from a few rural areas and move slowly along theMekong River at a speed of ,11 km per week (95% confidence interval 3–18 km per week) towards the capital, PhnomPenh.Conclusions: We suggest human movements – using roads as a surrogate – play a major role in the spread of dengue feverat a national scale. These findings constitute a new starting point in the understanding of the processes driving denguespread.
Fichier principal
Vignette du fichier
document.pdf (1.19 Mo) Télécharger le fichier
Origine Fichiers éditeurs autorisés sur une archive ouverte

Dates et versions

hal-01495165 , version 1 (08-10-2024)

Licence

Identifiants

Citer

Magali Teurlai, Rekol Huy, Bernard Cazelles, Raphaël Duboz, Christophe Baehr, et al.. Can Human Movements Explain Heterogeneous Propagation of Dengue Fever in Cambodia?. PLoS Neglected Tropical Diseases, 2012, 6 (12), pp.e1957. ⟨10.1371/journal.pntd.0001957⟩. ⟨hal-01495165⟩
506 Consultations
26 Téléchargements

Altmetric

Partager

More